UN Representative Predicts Civil War in Myanmar

The UN special envoy to Burma (Myanmar), Christine Schraner Burgener, warned of civil war and an “imminent bloodbath” by the coup army and called on the Security Council to consider meaningful actions that could reverse the course of events in this Asian country.

“When we look back ten years from now, how history will judge this inaction. I hope you can act while there is still time to avoid the worst outcome,” Schraner said in a speech obtained by Efe delivered to members of the UN’s highest body in a closed-door meeting.

In his presentation, Schraner painted an extremely bleak picture of the situation in the country, where repression by security forces has already killed more than 520 civilians.

On the Verge of Becoming a “Failed State”

“The whole country is on the verge of becoming a failed state,” said the UN representative, who also showed her fear that because the military cruelty is so severe, Burmese ethnic guerrillas could take a clear opposition stance, increasing the possibility of civil war on an unprecedented scale.

The Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army signed a joint statement warning the Burmese Army that if it does not stop its violent actions, they will defend and collaborate with the civilian protest movement against the military junta.

For Schraner, the most severe international crimes and violations of international law seem to be occurring in plain sight, a trend that she considers will become bloodier because the Commander-in-Chief seems determined to solidify his illegal control of power by force.

Given this situation, the UN representative insisted on the need for mediation but stressed that the military had closed the door to dialogue to most of the world in what, according to Schraner, seems to indicate that the military will only get involved in mediation when they feel they can contain the situation through repression and terror.

“I will remain open to dialogue and will continue to point this out, but if we simply wait until when they are ready to talk, the situation on the ground will only get worse. A bloodbath is imminent,” she said before calling for neither legitimacy to be given to their government nor recognition of the military’s attempts to create a façade of business, as usual.

In this regard, she announced that he expects to travel next week to the region as a continuation of his “close consultations” with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Army Violates Human Rights

“A strong international response requires a unified regional pivot, especially with neighboring countries using their influence for stability in Myanmar. I firmly believe that no ASEAN country or others sharing borders with Myanmar would want a failed state as a neighbor,” she stated.

Schraner also called for addressing impunity for perpetrators and asserted that the international community has stood by for too long while patterns of human rights violations and the most serious international crimes committed by the Myanmar military have been replayed.

“We have seen this army commit serious human rights violations in the past, and we have pledged to prevent them from happening again,” she insisted before calling on the 15 council members to listen to UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ call for a strong, unified and efficient international response.

Countries Reluctant to Act

While much of the international community has been very vocal in condemning the military’s actions, the Security Council – the UN body that can impose sanctions or approve the use of force – has so far been lukewarm, with several countries reluctant to act against the Burmese authorities.

China and Russia, which have veto power in the Security Council, are among the member states that have so far preferred not to denounce the February 1 coup.

On March 10, the Security Council adopted a presidential communiqué, which stated that:

• It called for a reversal of the coup d’état.
• It condemned the violence against peaceful demonstrators.
• It called for “greater restraint” on the part of the military forces.
  In the past, Moscow and Beijing have protected the Burmese authorities from possible action by the UN, for example, in the wake of the military operation that in 2017 led to a mass exodus of members of the Rohingya minority and was described by the United Nations as “ethnic cleansing.”

At the virtual meeting, which was private, Schraner Burgener denounced the arrests and murder of unarmed protesters seeking to restore democracy. As of Wednesday, March 31, it was reported that:

• 2,729 people had been arrested, charged, or sentenced since the coup.
• Approximately 536 have been killed, according to figures from the Myanmar Political Prisoners Assistance Association.

_______________